It’s a familiar phrase “It was a good plan, but due to unforeseen circumstances…”. The real world is often no respecter of best-laid plans, writes Rick Bond.
Scenario planning sets out to foresee the unforeseen. It affords you opportunities to envisage alternatives to the way you expect the world to behave and the subsequent impact upon your organisation. While you cannot dictate the throw of the dice, scenario planning affords you the luxury of having some alternative plans up your strategic sleeve for whatever number you throw – not just the one upon which you staked your money.
Most arts organisations create plans integrating artistic policy with internal competencies based on an assumption that external dependencies such as audience behaviour, funding and technology will evolve at a pace sufficiently slow to foresee change coming over the horizon. To acknowledge the impact of the unexpected, one need only reflect on the impact of Gerald Ratner’s off-the cuff remarks, the outbreak of foot and mouth, or a new airline company offering flights for £1. Imagine what could happen to theatres if Easy-cinemas took off and evenings out for £1 were possible.
Scenario planning is a hallmark of good leadership, and one that funding bodies respect. After all, having alternative strategies ready to go in the event of the ‘unexpected’ reassures them that their money is safe in your hands. So how does it work? Without delving into methodologies, let me whet your appetite with a construct that may stimulate some ideas.
The historic (and, let me add, fictitious!) city of Ethel-upon-Clink is home to a number of arts organisations with an excellent track record of serving the public and delivering artistic excellence. Naturally many of these receive varying degrees of subsidy. One funder is the neighbouring (and equally fictitious) North Ethel District Council (NEDC). The justification for funding across the border is a good one: NEDC residents are reported to comprise up to 40% of City venue audiences. The good news is that population numbers within NEDC’s small commuter towns and villages are growing fast as City employment opportunities grow. Hence it would be logical to assume that this means increased audiences for City venues; a good case for increased funding by NEDC.
However, NEDC growth could lead to an alternative scenario. Given a modicum of funding, communities could become large enough to sustain their own artistic endeavours. Increased population, could mean increased commuter traffic, making travelling in to Ethel-upon-Clink time consuming and unappealing. Increased capital investment to expand local schools may include new facilities with the capacity to accommodate more community arts initiatives.
In this scenario NEDC will face increased demand from its own constituents to divert funding to supporting more home-grown activities. In turn, these could lead to a fall in audiences in City venues. Of course this may not happen but in considering it, it is possible for arts organisations to prepare strategies to mitigate its effect. For instance:
• Consideration of alternative audience development plans or alternative sources of funding now rather than in the aftermath of a funding cut or decline in sales.
• Lobbying the City Council for improved public transport links (to reduce traffic congestion or to increase parking spaces).
• Developing outreach programmes in partnership with NEDC arts organisations to ensure some continuation of funding and income from their development.
Rehearsing options in the event that the future does not evolve the way you expected will mean less time freezing in the headlights of unexpected change and more time to look smart through implementing actions previously prepared. Visualising alternative future environments and the way in which they could directly impact on your organisation gives options. Although your main plan may not always be right, having alternatives means never being wrong.
Rick Bond is Director of The Complete Works (UK) Ltd, a cultural consultancy and training company.
t: 01598 710698;
w: http://www.thecompleteworks.org.uk