Melanie Howard look to the future of arts marketing.
Whilst some of the key drivers for change in recent years are well known ? such as changing household structures, the ageing population and growing affluence ? there are others, perhaps a little further out on the marketer?s radar, that should be coming into focus.
Perhaps the greatest of these in the long term, will be the effect of the global economic reality created by the rapid growth of Eastern economies, led by China and India, which will overtake the UK (China within the next few years and India by 2020). By 2050 China?s GDP will exceed that of the USA. This rebalancing will create greater competition in many markets, forcing smaller economies to focus on key competencies and adding value. It will also place a greater premium on the success of European integration. Our creative industries and ability to innovate will be ever more key to future economic success, which should be reflected in greater recognition of the importance of a vibrant cultural environment. In immediate practical terms, arts marketers should be looking out for an influx of middle-class tourists from these countries whose cultural interests may be quite different to those of the Americans and Europeans on whom we have traditionally relied. Another significant factor on the horizon is the ever-increasing number of young people being encouraged to stay in tertiary education. To meet government targets, this figure will reach 50% by 2010 and place the UK at the forefront of the OECD countries in this regard. Whether or not this will fill current skill shortages is debatable. However, it is certain that there be will more people with a greater experience of learning, greater access to ICT and, hopefully, a more open mind and interest in the wider cultural and arts environment. This should be good news for levels of participation amongst the young (although money will remain tight) and should encourage lifelong habits that will benefit the arts.
These are just two of many factors that will determine the shape of the future ?experience economy? ? people investing a higher proportion of their growing disposable income on a wide range of experience-based activities (rather than purchasing material goods). This underlying growth in this type of expenditure is good news, providing the arts can respond to the subtle shifts in interests and needs for self-expression, experience and new forms of community.
Melanie Howard, co-founder of think-tank Future Foundation, will be giving an overview of key trends that will impact audiences and arts organisations in the next ten years at the Arts Marketing Association conference and symposium in July. t: 01223 578078; w: http://www.a-m-a.co.uk