Statistical engineering

The news that only four of a total of twenty DCMS PSA3 targets have been met will not surprise those of us who have followed the progress of these statistics over the years (p1). Against the six arts targets, only one – increasing the attendance of Black and minority ethnic (BME) people at arts events – shows a statistically significant rise. An interim report on PSA3 achievements in June 2007 (AP147) showed that none of the targets had been met, so this year’s figures could be seen as a improvement; but any glimmer of self-congratulation is snuffed out by the news of an overall decline in arts participation in all priority groups (those from Black and minority ethnic backgrounds, those from lower socio-economic backgrounds and those with limiting disabilities) during the 3-year period of measurement. Whether the huge amount of money earmarked by the DCMS for trying to engage priority groups can be justified must surely now be a matter for debate. With one eye on the fast-approaching London Olympics, huge amounts are also being spent on sport, yet the figures for sports participation are even more depressing than those for the arts, with none of the PSA3 targets having been met. So where exactly is the evidence that interventions by state-funded development agencies make one jot of difference to the public’s preferences for leisure activities? It is nice to think that the hard work done by many arts organisations to attract BME audiences is actually bearing fruit; but this being the case, does that mean that the hard work being done to attract those from lower socio-economic groups and those with disabilities is not bearing fruit? Or is such work so tightly focused that it can’t make a dent in national statistics? Replacing social engineering with a new emphasis on excellence might be more effective: if you do lots of good art, the number of people attending or participating in it may well rise. The parallel with schools could be instructive – Creative Partnerships has shown that more interesting teaching raises standards, and the Government has recently announced a crack-down on “boring teaching” (a bit rich, coming from the very people who imposed a dull, exams-based curriculum on us all). As Lysen Damstatz (our spoof researcher from AP184) might suggest, perhaps we need to do some research on the research.